Bring it on
Well, the fun and games are over. Republicans and Democrats certainly had a a time of it at their recent national conventions, but now we all have to gear up for the serious business of electing the next president of the United States.
While the Nov. 8 election is a little over three months away, the big day will be here before you know it.
And for the first time in years, Pennsylvania could be a battleground state in a presidential election. Residents of the commonwealth haven’t supported a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Bill Clinton turned the tide in 1992, and GOP presidential candidates have largely abandoned Pennsylvania since then.
But that could change this year. Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate, is counting on support from the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan as his ticket to victory in November. It’s hard to tell if that will pay off or not, but he’s certainly giving it a whirl.
Pennsylvania will be particularly important with its 20 votes in the electoral college, the fifth highest among all the states. It’s importance was particularly telling as Trump made a campaign stop in Scranton this past week, talking about his plans to bring coal mines, steel mills and other manufacturing businesses back to Pennsylvania. Trump’s aides are saying that it will be first of many campaign stops in Pennsylvania.
Not to be outdone, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, held campaign rallies in Harrisburg, Johnstown and Pittsburgh Friday and Saturday. It will be interesting to see if Clinton can match Trump’s emotional appeals in hard-hit economic areas, particularly here and elsewhere in Pennsylvania.
Romney won Greene, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland counties, so Trump may well do likewise. However, Romney lost Allegheny County by 100,000 votes, and Trump will have to do much better there if he’s going to win Pennsylvania. He’ll also have to do much better in the Greater Philadelphia Metropolitan Area, which Obama won by 600,000 votes in 2012.
A poll released on Thursday by Boston-based Suffolk University showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 41 percent, thanks to her huge lead in the Philadelphia area. That more than countered Trump’s lead in southwestern Pennsylvania and other parts of the state.
However, the polls have been all over the place and certainly the numbers for both candidates will be going up and down many times before election day.
Obama only won Pennsylvania by five percentage points in 2012 and many felt that Romney could have won the commonwealth if he had campaigned here more. As it was, Romney did much better than John McCain who lost to Obama by nine points in 2008.
So, the election could go either way. It’s doubtful, though, that either candidate will be able to pull away in the coming months. It’s much more likely that the state will be in play for the balance of the campaign.
In the end, voters would be well advised to focus on the candidates in the coming months. While both Trump and Clinton are viewed unfavorably by huge swaths of people across the country, voters will still have to make a choice on election day. And sitting this one out isn’t an option. The consequences of this election will be felt for years to come, and it’s simply too important to leave it in the hands of others.