Democrats trip on way to nirvana
The past several weeks have not been kind to Democrats, and if they are unable to pass their sweeping domestic legislative agenda, at least in some form, things could go from bad to worse.
Ten months into the Biden presidency, Democrats are in a deep funk.
For one thing, their poll numbers are not what they need to be. The latest Gallup poll suggests voters, especially independents, are increasingly wary of Democratic leadership of the country.
Gallup found that by the largest margin since 2015, the country trusts Republicans over Democrats when it comes to protecting the national security. The margin is 54% to 39%.
Last year, the Dems’ figure was 47% overall and 42% among independents.
Today, only 31% of the nation’s swing voters think Democrats are better than Republicans on national security matters.
As for the party best able to ensure prosperity, Democrats have experienced a seven-point decline in the past year, from 48% to 41%.
The percentage of independents who feel Democrats are better than Republicans when it comes to securing the nation’s economic well being now stands at 35%.
There are other worrying signs.
An 82-page report called “Factory Towns,” due for release next month, delineates the party’s struggles in 10 Midwestern states.
The report zeroes in on voters in small to midsize communities – the kind of voters who, incidentally, live outside of Pittsburgh in Western Pennsylvania.
Prepared by a team of Democratic market researchers, the survey shows a steep decline in the party’s ability to attract voters in former manufacturing towns where jobs were once secure and unions were strong.
Since 2012, while Democrats have been piling up votes in the big cities and the suburban communities of the 10 states, the party has shed a little over half a million votes in heavily rural communities.
But that’s nothing compared to the 2.63 million voters no longer casting Democratic ballots in the region’s small to midsize counties.
The consequences of a continued erosion of votes in such communities is dire: “If things get worse … we can give up any hope of winning the battleground states of the industrial heartland,” the report, obtained by the New York Times, concludes.
One of the report’s authors, Richard J. Martin, said, “We cannot elect Democrats up and down the line, let alone protect our governing majorities, if we don’t address these losses.”
The missing Democratic votes, the report states, tracks the loss of manufacturing-based, family-sustaining union jobs.
“Nine of the 10 states included in the survey have accounted for 93% of the loss of union members nationwide in the last two decades,” the report points out. “And just in the last 10 years, these states have lost 10% of their union membership – an average that is three times greater than nationally.”
Meanwhile, back in Washington, Democratic fortunes are sagging.
For one, there’s Joe Manchin, senator from West Virginia, who in a July memo to Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer crystallized his opposition to elements of the Biden administration’s domestic Build Back Better agenda.
As Paul Kane of the Washington Post states, “The specifics (in the memo) and in Manchin’s recent statements telegraph more difficulties for Democrats” in getting the president’s once in a generation human infrastructure bill through the congressional juggernaut.
Acting as if they had overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats were hoping for a new New Deal.
However, leadership failed to reckon with the likes of Manchin and Krysten Sinema of Arizona. They forgot LBJ’s first rule of congressional politics: count your votes.
Can the thing be saved? With compromise from both ends of the party, yes. Maybe.
Schumer said last Tuesday: “Just about everyone will be disappointed in some things. Just about everyone will be pleased with some things. But we will get it done.”
Richard Robbins lives in Uniontown. He can be reached at dick.l.robbins@gmail.com.