Fayette County politics in midst of major change
Democrats need to get out of the fog they are in regarding their party’s recent reversals. Both Washington and Westmoreland counties are lost, perhaps for a very long time, and Fayette County could follow.
For the first time probably since the onset of the Great Depression in the early 1930s, Fayette County is represented in Harrisburg by two Republican legislators.
One of those legislators clawed his way onto last November’s ballot the hard way — as a primary election write-in. Either Ryan Warner is the next Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan — a supremely skillful politician — or Republicans are on a roll. I bet it’s the latter.
In this environment, no Democrat is safe. It’s a reversal of roles: decade after decade Republicans were shut out while Democrats breezed to one victory after another.
It was easy, given the circumstances, to assume things would never change. The immutable laws of politics had made Fayette County along with the rest of western Pennsylvania solid for the Democrats.
Well, guess what. Those days are all over. Indeed, they are over in a wide swath of Appalachia, of which western Pennsylvania is a part. The decline of local Democrats might best be viewed through this regional lense.
Thus, the same political trends that helped usher longtime West Virginia congressman Democrat Nick Rahall out of office and turned what was to have been a tight race for Mitch McConnell’s Senate seat in Kentucky into a runaway win for the new Republican majority leader are at work in western Pennsylvania.
The party has been seriously hollowed out. As the respected Cook Political Report stated, “There are no longer any Democrats in the U.S. House who represent rural Appalachia.”
All of this — surprise, surprise — has very little to do with Barack Obama. We can pretty much put to rest speculation that Obama’s presence in the White House accelerated the departure of white working class western Pennsylvanians from the Democratic party. The evidence, if such is the case, is mostly anecdotal.
True, the president lost Fayette County twice: by a single point to John McCain and by nine points to Mitt Romney.
But the trend lines indicate that by the time Obama came along the future had been in view for quite some time.
Ponder this: Al Gore thumbed George W. Bush in 2000. Four years later, Bush closed the gap against John Kerry, losing 53-46. Meaning, Republicans went from a 17-point to a 7-point deficit in Fayette County in four short years.
Republicans upped their game again in 2008, though because of past gains, McCain did not require a giant leap forward. He bettered W’s 2004 outcome by four points. In turn, Romney did better than McCain. How much better? It was another four-point gain.
This doesn’t add up to racism run rampant. It suggests, instead, a steady loss of support for Democratic presidential candidates among largely lower to middle-income white constituents.
I’ve suggested in other columns the reason for this has to do with the national party’s abandonment of these voters, once a bedrock Democratic constituency, and I’m sticking to my story.
What starts at the level of the presidency eventually seeps down the ballot to impact races for state legislature. Eventually, county commissioner elections are drawn into the vortex. At least, that’s the way things worked out in Westmoreland County, where it was clear the Republicans were running to the front as early as 2000, when Bush beat Gore 52-46.
It took 11 more years before Republicans were strong enough to claim a county commissioner majority.
The good news for Fayette County Democrats is that they have an opportunity to mount a counter attack. The bad news: the clock is ticking.
Then again, maybe Republicans themselves will halt their all but inevitable march to majority status. A case in point: new state senator Pat Stefano of Connellsville has announced that his first legislative foray will involve requiring Pennsylvanians to produce proof of citizenship before accessing government benefits.
All of this presumably by way of stanching the influx of illegals into his district and saving taxpayers from the resulting fraud and waste.
Sen. Stefano’s proposed legislation represents a victory of ideology over common sense. It’s the kind of irrelevancy that if repeated time and again will sideline Republicans with voters who are looking for real solutions to real problems.
Chasing phantoms is no way to build a strong political foundation.
Richard Robbins lives in Uniontown and is the author of two books: Grand Salute: Stories of the World War II Generation and Our People. He can be reached at grandsalutebook@gmail.com.