Trump surges
While President Trump finds himself embroiled in one controversy after another, his support has grown by 20 percent in southwestern Pennsylvania since February, according to a recent Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
The poll showed that 60 percent of those surveyed in the region think he’s doing an excellent or good job up from 40 percent last February. The Southwest Region includes Fayette, Greene, Washington, Westmoreland, Beaver, Cambria, Indiana and Somerset counties, all of which Trump carried by huge margins in his presidential race last November.
The Southwest Region was tied with the Northwest Region in terms of Trump’s highest poll numbers. The Northeast Region followed at 46 percent followed by the Central Region at 39, Allegheny County at 31 percent, the Southeast Region at 24 percent and Philadelphia at 10 percent.
Overall, 37 percent of those surveyed in Pennsylvania thought Trump was doing an excellent or good job. That’s up from 32 percent last February.
While the numbers for the Southwest Region were tied for the highest in the state for Trump, they were the lowest in the commonwealth for Gov. Tom Wolf and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, who both will be running for re-election next year.
Only 24 percent of those surveyed said Wolf was a doing a good or excellent job. Allegheny County topped the poll with 58 percent of those surveyed saying they thought he was doing an excellent or good job.
The Southeast Region was next at 50 percent followed by the Central and Northwest regions at 38 percent, Philadelphia at 34 percent and the Northeast Region at 32 percent.
Of those surveyed across the commonwealth, 41 percent said Wolf was doing an excellent or good job, an increase of three percent since February.
Only 27 percent of those surveyed in the Southwest Region said Casey was doing an excellent or good job. His highest approval rating, like Wolf, was in Allegheny County, where 46 percent of those surveyed said he was doing an excellent or good job.
The Northeast Region was next at 45 percent, followed by the Southeast Region at 40 percent, the Central Region at 37 percent and Philadelphia and the Northeast Region each at 31 percent.
Of those surveyed across the commonwealth, 38 percent said Casey was doing an excellent or good job, an increase of one percent since February.
The numbers in Southwestern Pennsylvania should be of particular concern to both Wolf and Casey. Back in 2014, Wolf won Fayette County 57-42 percent and Greene County 56-43 percent but lost Washington County 51-48 percent and Westmoreland County 57-42 percent.
Back in 2012, Casey won Fayette County 50-47 percent but lost Greene County 50-47 percent, Washington County 51-46 percent and Westmoreland County 56-41 percent.
Overall, Trump’s numbers are a startling turnaround from the days when voters in Southwestern Pennsylvania voted for Democrat presidential candidates on a regular basis. With the exception of George McGovern in 1972, Fayette County supported every Democratic presidential candidate from Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 through John Kerry in 2004.
But Fayette County voters have supported Republican presidential candidates in the last three elections, so the shoe is clearly on the other foot now. Can Wolf and Casey stem the tide? Only time will tell, but they both better find a way to attract at least some of Trump’s supporters in Southwestern Pennsylvania or they’ll be doomed to follow in the footsteps of Hillary Clinton, who lost overwhelmingly in this area last November.