The big ‘red wave’ that wasn鈥檛
The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is on.
It’s nasty, and about to get much nastier in the coming months.
Democrats haven’t controlled that chamber since 2010.
They’re hopeful that will change after November’s midterm elections.
If they manage to flip two dozen seats currently held by Republicans, they can throw a monkey-wrench into Donald Trump’s plans for the remainder of his first term.
Besides, if Democrats take control of the House, they’ll hold majorities in key investigative committees.
They’d surely reopen House investigations into Trump’s possible Russian ties leading up to the 2016 elections.
But that might not be the stickiest development for Republicans.
A Democratic majority could lead some Democrats to write articles of impeachment.
Republicans know that.
They’ll do everything they can to avoid becoming the minority.
But there are clear signs their efforts could be futile.
Last Tuesday, voters in Ohio’s 12th Congressional district went to the polls in a special election.
The 12th is a heavily Republican district in which the former Republican, Pat Tiberi, never won with less than 64 percent of the vote.
It was solidly Republican until last Tuesday.
In fact, Mitt Romney won it by 10 percentage points, and Trump won it by 11.
But the Republican on the ballot last week, Ohio state senator Troy Balderson, wasn’t declared the winner, because the vote margin (1,564 votes) is still too close to call.
And since there are still 8,483 provisional and absentee ballots that won’t be counted until August 18th, it’s not known when Balderson, or his Democratic opponent, Danny O’Connor, will head for Washington to be sworn-in.
NOTE: Regardless of who will be declared the winner of that special election, both Balderson and O’Connor will run again in the midterm election on November 6th. And they’re already campaigning – again.
All of this means that Republicans now know that the prospects of a “Blue Wave” have been greatly enhanced by what happened in Ohio – and in the state of Washington.
U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is the highest-ranking Republican woman in Congress.
She’s represented Washington’s 5th Congressional district since 2005.
In the state of Washington, Democrats and Republicans run against each other in primary elections. And the top two vote-getters run again in the general election.
Democrat Lisa Brown, a former chancellor of Washington State University, will challenge McMorris Rodgers in November, after she ran a surprisingly close race last Tuesday.
With more than 120,000 votes cast, the Democrat (Brown) managed to get within a percentage point of the high-ranking Republican (McMorris Rodgers).
It’s no wonder that Democrats are hopeful, but Republicans are bracing for the outcome of November’s midterms.
Add to that, there’s been another development that could gum up the works.
When Trump started his campaign for president, his first congressional supporter was New York Rep. Chris Collins.
Collins was also the fellow who introduced Trump at the Republican National Convention in 2016.
He’s since been a staunch Trump apologist, who appears frequently on cable news shows to tamp down criticisms of him.
While the results of Tuesday’s election night balloting may have been troubling for Republicans – it got even worse by Wednesday morning.
Collins was indicted on charges of securities fraud, wire fraud and providing false statements to the FBI.
Ironically, the indictment against Collins includes a paragraph about him allegedly engaging in some form of illegal activity while he was on the grounds of the White House, during a Congressional Picnic.
Collins still plans to run for reelection in his Republican district in November.
It’s a district that’s thought to be safely Republican – for now.
But there’s a growing sense that fewer Republican seats in the U.S. House are safe.
Not the 12th district in Ohio. Not the 5th district seat held by McMorris Rodgers in Washington – and even Chris Collins’ seat in the state of New York.
While Trump likes to say he expects there to be a “Red Wave” in November, we know it’s just another case of his wishful thinking.
Edward A. Owens is a multi-Emmy Award winner, former reporter and anchor for Entertainment Tonight and 20-year TV news veteran.