An independent for president in 2028?
Right now, somewhere in the political world, someone is contemplating a race for president of the United States, not as a loyal Republican or a loyal Democrat, but as an independent.
The year 2028 looks ripe for such a campaign. By the time campaign season rolls around in 2027, the political landscape is likely to be even more disturbed than it is now, and Americans’ disenchantment with politics-as-usual is even more pronounced.
Current poll numbers suggest an opening for a candidate outside the mainstream of the two major parties.
A recent Gallup survey, for instance, found voters trending more and more independent – 45% represents an all-time high.
Underlying the trend is that Americans are alarmed at the direction of the country, with some 70% of those recently surveyed by Quinnipiac saying the U.S. was experiencing a political crisis.
In addition, the institutions of government are not doing well with voters, suggesting an underlying weakness in our political configurations, which might provide yet one more opening for the independent-minded man or woman office-seeker.
Only 16% think Congress is doing a good job, the survey found.
As for President Trump, his approval rating has dipped below 40%, according to Reuters. As far as public opinion goes, the president is at the lowest point of his second term.
We have been here before, of course. Time after time in the modern era, breaking ranks with the two-party system has been a political non-starter. Alabama governor George Wallace shook things up in 1968, with his law-and-order run for the presidency. But even winning five Southern states and 46 electoral votes availed him only a third place finish behind party stalwarts Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey.
The most serious independent run for president occurred in 1912, when ex-president Theodore Roosevelt attempted to reclaim his former job. Roosevelt, running under the Progressive, or Bull Moose, party label, finished ahead of the incumbent Republican president William Howard Taft, but second to Democrat Woodrow Wilson
More recently, businessman Ross Perot ran for president twice. Finishing third both times, losing in 1992 and 1996 to Bill Clinton and behind Republicans George H. W. Bush (1992) and, four years later, Bob Dole, Perot’s experience was telling: a strong start followed by a poor finish.
Some would-be independents refuse the siren song of the White House. In 1932, at the height of the Great Depression, the Republican governor of Pennsylvania, Gifford Pinchot, was urged to run for president as an independent.
In a letter to Pinchot, Lewis D. Sampson of Cincinnati argued that 1932 represented a “unique and promising opportunity” for a candidate bold enough to reject the two-party stranglehold on the presidency. “The people are restless,” Sampson said.
To his credit, the governor rejected the pressure to buck the historical tide. His then-political soulmate, Democrat Franklin Roosevelt won in 1932, defeating President Herbert Hoover.
The closest we’ve come in modern times to an independent in the White House is Donald Trump. He staged a hostile takeover of the Republican Party in 2016. His relationship to the party as an institution remains showy yet nebulous. Trump is his own political brand.
That said, no independent candidate has ever won the presidency.
In 2016, Trump wisely recognized the hazards of running without the benefit of major party affiliation. Those benefits include automatic ballot access, unquestioned debate opportunities with the other side, and a seasoned get-out-the-vote infrastructure.
Who might be thinking of an independent campaign for president in 2028? Maybe Nikki Haley. The former Republican governor of South Carolina and UN ambassador could credibly mount an independent effort.
Billionaire Mark Cuban is another possibility, though the Mount Lebanon native, Dallas businessman, and TV personality may be too sharp an operator to tilt at windmills.
Then there’s Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman. By siding with Trump on several high profile votes, the Democrat has alienated so many in his party that re-nomination to his current job seems doubtful. Why not run for president? Habitually splitting the difference, he may be just the guy voters are yearning for, hoodie and all.
Richard Robbins lives in Uniontown. The author of “JFK Rising” and “Troubled Times,” he can be reached at dick.l.robbins@gmail.com.