Three questions heading into Pirates season
With opening day nearing, here are three questions — the answers to which might be the difference between another disappointing year for the Pirates and a return to the postseason.
Can the young starting pitching hold up?
General manager Neal Huntington announced Friday that Tyler Glasnow will be the team’s fifth starter and that Trevor Williams will join the bullpen, rounding out the team’s 12-player pitching staff.
Glasnow is 23, the youngest member of the Pirates’ staff, but there aren’t exactly any graybeards out there, either. Ivan Nova is 30, Gerrit Cole is 26, Jameson Taillon 25 and Chad Kuhl is 24. With an average age of 25.6 years, the starting rotation is full of young guns.
They’re not just young, they don’t have much experience, either. Nova has made 129 career starts and Cole has 94 to his name, but Taillon, Kuhl and Glasnow have combined for just 36, and all of them came last season.
The three young starters have already taken steps to prevent a pushback from the league after their first experience in the majors. Kuhl is working on his four-seam fastball to work the top of the zone and not just the bottom. Glasnow has shortened his stride for a more efficient delivery to try to keep more runners at first base. Taillon is building his arm for his first unfettered season of work after injuries took two years from him and the team mandated a cautious return in 2016.
The verdict: It’s unrealistic to think that all five pitchers will successfully navigate the season without injuries or stretches of poor play. The good news is that the Pirates have solid depth. Williams battled it out with Glasnow for the last starter spot until after the team broke camp and could easily slide into the rotation. Steven Brault and Drew Hutchison both have major-league arms and will start the season in the rotation with Triple-A Indianapolis, and prospect Nick Kingham will be returning from an injury at some point this season. Even if some of the starters falter, the Pirates have the arms to pick up the slack.
Where will the power come from?
If this question seems familiar, it’s because it was the same one many were asking at the beginning of the 2016 season. But the Pirates ended up with plenty of pop, thanks to home runs from some unexpected sources. Jung Ho Kang returned from his knee injury to hit 21. Bench bats David Freese, Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez combined to hit 44.
But Joyce and Rodriguez have moved on in free agency, and Kang’s entire season is in jeopardy with visa issues. The Pirates did not add any big-name power bats to the lineup for 2017, so they’re going to be counting on similar internal profession to get the ball over the fence with regularity.
The verdict: Starling Marte seems poised for a breakout season when it comes to hitting the ball over the fence. He hit 107 fly balls in 2016 after hitting 102 in 2015 and 102 in 2014. But his home run total was down to nine last season after 19 and 13 the two previous years. Some simple regression to the mean should have Marte poised to get back in the mid-teens, at least.
First baseman Josh Bell is the other source for large potential improvement. He showed glimpses of what he’s capable of in his first taste of the majors in 2016, but he finished with just three home runs. With a full season under his belt this year, it’s reasonable to suggest he could come close to knocking 20 out of the park.
Can they catch the Cubs?
The World Series champions showed no signs of slowing down this offseason, and it’s reasonable to wonder if the Pirates, even under optimal circumstances, would be able to match the Cubs’ 103 wins of a year ago. So is all the hand wringing of who goes where and who does what for naught if there’s no chance the Pirates can catch the Cubs anyway?
The verdict: There are two sides to this coin, and the Cubs, though still boasting an impressive lineup and stellar rotation, are due for some regression as well. Baseball analytics site fangraphs.com projects that they’ll finish with 94 wins this season. Part of the reason for that is the incredible luck the Cubs had with starting pitching in 2016. All five of the Cubs’ starters were in the top 30 in the National League in innings pitched and in the top 20 in ERA. That’s a devastating combination, but that level of pitching health is pretty rare, and it’s unlikely the Cubs will be able to repeat that performance.
For the record, Fangraphs projects the Pirates to finish 79-83 and miss the playoffs for the second straight season.{/span}