Is Brady experiencing late-season decline
MEMORABLE SERIES MOMENT
Steelers 7, Patriots 6
Jan. 3, 1998 at Three Rivers Stadium
Let’s go back to a simpler time, when 7-6 games really did exist, when Terry Glenn was still alive, Willie McGinest and Ty Law were yet to be feared, and Mike Vrabel was still trying to find a place in the Steelers’ starting lineup. But we’re not going back far enough that Curtis Martin would be running through the fog for a touchdown. No, Martin was injured and out for this game, and instead Steelers QB Kordell Stewart was the star runner. His 40-yard run in the first quarter provided the Steelers with the only touchdown they would need, as third-year kicker Adam Vinatieri could only muster a pair of field goals for the Patriots.
TALE OF THE TAPE
“The distant past is talked about so much with these teams, but I think we should just look at the tape of last year’s championship game, at New England’s defense and the way they played. There is no more Rob Ninkovich. He retired. There is no more Dont’a Hightower. He’s on IR. There is no more Jabaal Sheard, or Chris Long, or Barkevious Mingo, or Ryan Logan. They have another corner to replace Logan but that front seven is gone. And if you look at two of the Steelers’ primary receivers, Sammie Coates and Cobi Hamilton, you can say the Steelers’ offense is much better. The Steelers left a ton of plays on the field in that game. There were five crucial drops, a couple could’ve been touchdowns. There was a crucial mental error on first-and-goal at the 1 that left them with a field goal. There was a dropped interception. When you play the Patriots and Tom Brady, you cannot leave plays on the field, and that’s what they did. The Steelers are a much better football team — even without Ryan Shazier — on both sides of the ball. Cameron Heyward didn’t play in last year’s game, so that was a big missing piece. So was Le’Veon Bell. They are a much better football team and New England is not the football team they were last year.” — Steelers Radio analyst Tunch Ilkin.
TOP QUESTION
Is Brady experiencing one of those Peyton Manning-like late-season declines?
The Patriots’ QB isn’t on the injury list this week, but since appearing three weeks ago with an injured Achilles’ tendon, Brady’s numbers have dipped precipitously. In the last three games, against teams aggregately sub-.500, Brady has a passer rating of 83.7. He was a more Brady-like 110.9 in the previous 10 games. Tape shows him bailing on more throws and not throwing in the face of a rush and taking the hit. Instead he throws and gets down in a hurry. He’s also more hurried in his play-action game when he used to be Tom Cool with the ball after the play fake. Even though he’s clearly more conscious of being hit, Brady’s still been sacked 29 times, or almost twice as many times in one more game than he played last season. The ball’s been hanging on the 40-year-old of late. Is it a sign of aging? Or was it temporary because of the injury?
THREE QUESTIONS
With CB CAMERON SUTTON
Q: Well, this is the biggest game of the season. Are you, perhaps overexcited?
CS: “I feel like it’s just another week. You can get beat any given week and that’s how you’ve got to approach it. They line up and play football and play the same way you line up and play football. It’s going to come down to who wants it more, who does the extra things out there on the field, who all plays together, communicates well and competes at a high level and gets the job done.”
Q: You’re a rookie, and you might make your first start. Do you expect Brady to come after you?
CS: “I feel like any team does that. You just have to embrace these moments and enjoy being out there. That’s half of the battle right there, the mind games that you play out there on the field, the positive energy, the positive vibes you have out there on the field carry you a long way. You keep rolling, never get down on yourself. Just be ready to go. Everyone has their base. Everyone has their scheme going into the game. It’s about who executes more and who makes more plays.”
Q: You’ve been active now for three weeks. Have you become more comfortable?
CS: “Oh yeah, most definitely. It was slowing down just watching it. Now it’s slowing down even more being out there and getting more reps.”
GAME BREAKDOWN
What the Steelers can expect at 4:25 today at Heinz Field:
ON OFFENSE:
Even if Trey Flowers returns, the Patriots have little that’s scary among their front seven. Flowers is a good pass-rusher but not a great one. The best run defender is Alan Branch, but he’s been ruled out with a knee injury. They’re playing a hybrid version of the old Bear defense, a Double Eagle but without the two linebackers on the tight end outside. Their base defense is five defensive backs (three safeties), which brings Patrick Chung up as the other linebacker. Even against two tight ends, they’re in that 5-DB base. Since Bill Belichick prefers to get his 11 best players on the field, that says his linebacker corps is very thin without Hightower and Ninkovich. Elandon Roberts, who was part of that 3-man linebacking corps last year, isn’t playing nearly as well without those two this year. The secondary is the strength of the Patriots’ defense.
ON DEFENSE:
While the Patriots’ skill players are superb, their offensive line is average as a pass-blocking unit. Left guard Joe Thuney should have Heyward salivating, and Bud Dupree must show something against replacement right tackle Cam Fleming. Center David Andrews is “just a guy” as well, while 6-8 left tackle Nate Solder could have trouble with T.J. Watt and James Harrison. The Patriots’ O-line is a better run-blocking unit, but it’s likely the Steelers would prefer tackling Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis instead of Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.
PREDICTION
I was certain of a Patriots blowout last January, but listened to all of the talk all week and ended up picking the Pats by only a field goal. My first instinct this week was a Steelers upset, and I’m sticking with it, in spite of the negativity sweeping the local media. I love this spot for the Steelers, at home, rested against a team playing on the road off a Monday night road trip to Miami. I believe Brady’s foot is bothering him. I believe the Steelers are focused and driven by revenge. I believe the fact the Steelers can knock the Pats to the No. 3 seed adds to their frenzied focus. I am worried about the questionable status of CB Joe Haden and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, but it’s not making me change my mind against a defending champ that allows 5.0 yards per carry. … Steelers, 33-30.
BY THE NUMBERS
7: Patriots’ defensive rank in the red zone, quite a jump from the No. 29 ranking in overall defense. They can keep teams to field goals.
20: Patriots’ defensive rank in sacks. Although, the tepid pass rush will get help from the expected return of Flowers (6 sacks).
32: Patriots’ defensive rank in yards allowed per carry (5.0), which should be hurt by the loss of Branch, the 6-6, 350-pound defensive tackle.
50: Number of passes thrown by Roethlisberger during the Steelers’ 25-17 win over the Patriots back in 2011, when the Steelers possessed the ball for 39:22.
121: Difference in yards passing between the No. 1, Brady, and the No. 2, Roethlisberger, in the NFL this season.
DOWNLOADS
n On Showtime’s Inside the NFL, analyst Ray Lewis painted a bleak picture for the Steelers. “Brady will always have success against Pittsburgh’s defense. He always has. Why? They cannot pressure the pocket from the inside. They cannot get to him. The corners usually play 12 yards off. The pitch and catch for him is way too easy. Now, if you are Pittsburgh and you want to control this game … keep Tom Brady on the sideline, this is when Le’Veon Bell becomes so crucial in this game plan.”
n “They didn’t out-talent us,” Steelers safety Sean Davis said of last year’s loss in the AFCCG. “They just out-schemed us, man.” Whoa, so it was the coaches and not the players? “Well, we didn’t execute, either,” said Davis, who explained the basics of the Patriots’ attack this way: “They do a lot of weird stuff that other teams don’t do. They run routes with fullbacks and spread you out wide so they can get mismatches. That’s why I said they outschemed us and did things that didn’t allow us to get lined up in time. They tempo-ed us. They do a lot of weird stuff. They’ve got a lot of weapons. But they’re not better than us physically. They just outperformed us.”
n Tyler Matakevich returned from a shoulder injury to practice full-time Friday, but it might be too late for him to crash the playing-time party that also includes Sean Spence and Arthur Moats, who both looked rusty their first games there, and L.J. Fort, who played much better last game as the dime backer. The four replacements for Shazier at the mack inside linebacker spot have been part of a run defense that’s allowed 274 yards at 6.0 yards per carry the last two games. “We’re going to put our best guys out there if we can,” said coordinator Keith Butler. “We’ve got a plan that we’re going to try to use and get these guys playing, and we need to play better than we did last week, obviously.” Moats added that, “You should definitely see a lot better play out of me and Spence. Definitely.”
n Shazier has begun physical rehabilitation to regain the use of his legs. That’s the only information that’s been released. It’s ominous news, in that he apparently has yet to regain the use of his legs. On the bright side, rehab wouldn’t begin without the hope of that happening.
n Brady has picked apart the Steelers’ predominantly zone defense throughout his 18-year career. He’s 10-2 against the Steelers with a passer rating of 115.1. The Steelers were criticized for not playing more man coverage in the last game, so Butler was asked if they would play more of it this time. “We’ll see,” he said, as reporters left disappointed. But the Pittsburgh media did get a pretty good description of the combination zone/man concepts the Steelers do play in their match-up zone. Here’s Belichick when asked if the Steelers play almost all zone: “It’s about the same. They play a lot of match zone. Some of their zones as soon as the route clears it turns into man-to-man. You can call it whatever you want. Either way, they’re a very good defensive team. They put a lot of pressure on you. They mix it up. There is certainly some man. There is some match zone you can call man if you want to. Then there is some different variety of zone and blitz zone. They really give you a lot of things to get ready for. They’re a hard defense to prepare for.”
PARTING SHOT
“We’re positioned well. We can clinch home field right away by beating them. The opportunity’s there. Everyone knows about it. But we’re done talking about it. We’ve got to show up and play. Everything’s on the table at this point.” — David DeCastro.