Pirates hitters lacking, according to EV and BABIP
Since the last time we spoke in this space, the Pittsburgh Pirates have seen their season begin to slip away.
At the time of this writing, they find themselves at 14-20, losers of four straight and occupying the National League Central cellar.
The reasons for their current nadir are many and varied. However, today in Bucs by Numbers we will explore two advanced stats that, when paired together, help tell the story of the Pirates’ lackluster run creation efforts.
Exit Velocity (EV) is an advanced stat that is getting a lot of publicity these days. EV refers to the speed that a batted ball — any batted ball — hits as it comes off a hitter’s bat. It reads both by average EV and on individual hits.
EV is simple enough to understand. Higher exit velocity will lead to more base hits. Gaudy EVs on home run balls are prevalent, such as the 119.2 mph screamer of a round-tripper that New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge recently sent into the stratosphere.
Weaker EVs lead to ground balls and lazy flies. Ground balls and lazy flies lead to, well, you know. You watch the games.
EV on its own is hard to contextualize. Luckily, a second advanced stat plays hand in hand with exit velocity.
Batting Average On Balls in Play (BABIP) tells us a player’s batting average only on balls in play. Strikeouts and walks are left out of this metric, giving us a true measure of a batters ability to find spots in the field where balls can land for hits.
Hard hits with high exit velocity feed BABIP in most cases. There are those cases in which a hitter has a high EV, but a low BABIP. Such hitters are easily classified as “unlucky,” with a hard hit ball showing that a hitter’s swing mechanics are likely working even if the balls are not resulting in hits.
Before we get into the current state of the Pirates’ EV and BABIP numbers, we will set some baselines. In 2017-to-date, the average EV on a team level across all of Major League Baseball is a tidy 87.0 mph. The current National League BABIP rate is .295; both are as of this writing.
If we look at Pirates hitters who have put at least 10 balls in play — an easy way to discount most pitchers — we find that 10 out of 15 Pirates hitters with 10+ balls in play are doing so with an exit velocity below the major league average.
Among 15 Pirates with at least 25 plate appearances, nine have a BABIP below the .295 National League Mark.
Do the Pirates truly have that many unlucky hitters in their midst?
Well, yes. But also, no.
The most glaring example of a hitter who is middling in every sense is Andrew McCutchen. Sporting a BABIP of .226 as of this writing, the former MVP cannot point to stinging balls around the yard only to be stung by bad luck with an average EV of 87.3, a tick above the MLB rate.
It has been a horrible season to date for McCutchen, and his diminished bat speed has led to underwhelming exit velocity and thus, fewer hits. We can point to his BABIP as a sign of bad luck, but with an accompanying low EV, this is a flimsy argument.
The luckiest Pirates hitter would be one that is on the shelf.
Adam Frazier is currently working through a rehab assignment with the Triple-A Indianapolis Indians. When he returns to the club, he will soon learn if the baseball gods are still shining upon him. They certainly were before his injury, with a .341 BABIP despite a dreadful 85.1 mph EV. Frazier was also aided by BABIP last season, so it will be interesting to see how his first prolonged period in the majors affects his slashline.
The one true Pirates hitter that has found steady, sustainable hitting is also on the shelf.
David Freese was the Pirates’ hottest hitter during the season’s first month until a hamstring injury slowed him. Pity, as Freese was putting together a solid start to the season at the plate. When he went out for injury, he had posted a .326 BABIP along with an above average 88.2 mph EV.
Fan favorite Francisco Cervelli serves as a hard-luck loser in terms of lucky hitting. He has the second highest EV on the team at 88.9 MPH, but has a below average BABIP of .280. With 78 balls put in play, there is a large enough sample size to consider him as such.
As usual, Josh Harrison is a hitter that many just cannot figure out. Harrison has solidified his role as the team’s lead-off hitter against right-handed pitching. His slashline of .299 batting average/.362 on-base percentage/.479 slugging percentage is an impressive one, and he has done it despite weak hitting. His average exit velocity comes in at 83 MPH — well below the league average and second lowest on the team only to weak-hitting Phil Gosselin. Despite this, he carries a .323 BABIP — certainly above the league-wide rate but not far enough so to suggest extreme good luck. Harrison has long been an enigma at the plate. With his free-swinging ways, do not be surprised if his weak EV brings that BABIP back in line.
On their own merits, BABIP and EV do not paint the full picture of the story of a major league hitter. However, they do serve as a nice cover photo if nothing else.
In the end, it is often as simple as “see ball, hit ball,” but in today’s baseball day and age, perhaps the adage should be changed to something more apropos.
How about this: “See ball, hit ball as hard as you can and hope for the best?”