A short reprieve from winter
After a bit of more cold and snow the past two weeks, weather patterns look to favor some milder weather in the coming days. We are still in a La Nina weather pattern, and, according to the Climate Prediction Centers original forecast for winter in our region, it was for the cold and snow to relax as we moved into the latter part of winter. This seems to be happening and the coming week should see temperatures in the 50s and even a day or two near 60 degrees.
Along with the mild air most of the precipitation should be rain for the coming week. In fact, the 8-14 day outlook continues this mild trend with above normal temperatures through the end of February for just about all areas in the east from Maine to Florida. Precipitation should mostly be in the form of rain with not much in the way of snow.
This coming week has a good bit of rain in the forecast to go along with our mild weather and the remaining days near the end of the month may be a bit drier. Average temperatures for this coming week are 42 degrees for the high and 22 for the morning low. The last week of February has averages of 44 and 24.
Looking back at all the early winter forecasts, I would have to say the Climate Prediction Center appears to be the most accurate. The center is part of NOAA and is responsible for these longer range for forecasts or outlooks as I like to call them.
鈥淟a Nina鈥� is Spanish for 鈥渢he girl,鈥� and is the opposite of the 鈥淓l Nino鈥� or 鈥渢he boy.鈥� These are weather terms that have been developed in response to changing temperatures of the Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of South America. On February 8, the Prediction Center stated that the current weather pattern had begun to weaken, thus the turn to milder weather. A new statement will be updated in a few days and should give us some clues as to how March temperatures and rainfall will look. The folks at the Prediction Center are the real scientists behind the scenes of the weather business. They differ from the TV prophets as they avoid the hype and scary language so often seen today on television and the Internet.
May I suggest you look at their website at www.climatepredictioncenter.org. In addition to the short-term outlooks, you can take a look at longer term outlooks for months, seasons or even a year. Of course, these are just outlooks and not forecasts for specific days. On the commercial side of the fence, www.accuweather.com and www.weather.com also are pretty good at 10- and 15-day outlooks. All of these longer range products must be taken with a grain of salt though, as sometimes the weather is difficult to forecast even a day or two in advance.
Enjoy the mild weather and the break from winter.