Bills, Steelers fighting for AFC playoff berth
MEMORABLE SERIES MOMENT
Steelers 32, Bills 14
Dec. 22, 1974 at Three Rivers Stadium
The only other time these teams matched top-5 defenses in Pittsburgh was this first-round playoff game that begat the Steelers’ first Super Bowl run. The Steelers were the NFL’s top-ranked defense and the Bills were No. 5, but just as in the only other such meeting — the 2004 season finale at Buffalo between the NFL’s top two defenses — the game was high-scoring. Paul Seymour — who four years later would fail his physical after a trade to the Steelers — gave the Bills a 7-3 lead with a 22-yard touchdown catch. But the Steelers poured it on with four touchdowns before halftime. The first was a Terry Bradshaw-to-Rocky Bleier pass, followed by three Franco Harris touchdown runs to put the game away. Harris led all rushers with 74 yards, while the Steelers held O.J. Simpson to 49. They went on to beat Oakland and Minnesota for the title.
TALE OF THE TAPE
“In breaking down the Bills, you notice Josh Allen’s erraticism. He’s got a cannon-like arm, but it’s like one of those t-shirt guns. You shoot those things into the upper deck but you have no idea where the t-shirt’s going. Sometimes that’s what he looks like when he throws a deep ball. Against the Ravens, he was 1-of-11 on passes 15-plus yards down the field; he was 0-for-11 from outside the pocket; 1-of-16 when under duress; and, the one that interested me most, he was only 7-of-24 when blitzed. Obviously, he has some trouble locating the hot receivers or knowing where to go with the ball. They design running plays for him. He’s a wildcat with an arm. He may be a more accurate Tim Tebow.” — Steelers Radio analyst Craig Wolfley.
TOP QUESTION
Can the Steelers dent this Bills defense?
JuJu Smith-Schuster went down during practice this week to put the pause on his return as the Steelers’ beastly inside receiver with outside speed. So, again, Duck Hodges must rely on the Young Hungry Bunch: James Washington, Diontae Johnson, Tevin Jones and Deon Cain, against the league’s No. 3 defense, whose forte is pass defense. In the last five games, the Bills have allowed only 8.7 yards per completion. That’s elite. By comparison, during the same stretch, the outstanding Steelers secondary allowed 10.1 yards per completion. The Steelers will have to run the ball and hope that James Conner’s shoulder holds up.
THREE QUESTIONS: With DT CAMERON HEYWARD
Q: Is your coach setting this up as the best defense wins?
CH: “Yes, sir. I know we’re going to be competing against a good offense, but at the end of the day the best defense is going to win the game.”
Q: You don’t watch them on film, but what do you know about the Bills’ defense?
CH: “I’ve watched a little bit. I’ve also heard things. Coach T prepares us in his game plans. What we see, they’re a very stout defense, not a lot of weaknesses. They can hit on all three levels; they can make big plays on all three levels. I think every game when we play a great defense like this, you want to measure yourself up and see who’s going to come out on top.”
Q: Is your defense the best in the league?
CH: “We have the games to prove it. We’ve been in playoff mode since Week 5, so there’s not a lot of time to be thinking about the best defense. The best defense shows up in the Super Bowl.”
GAME BREAKDOWN
What to look for from the Steelers tonight at Heinz Field
ON OFFENSE:
The Steelers won’t have WR Smith-Schuster and TE Vance McDonald, but it looks as if RB Conner will make another comeback attempt. His last one, in Cleveland, fizzled after he put up all 10 of his rushing yards these last 48 days. Yet, Conner still leads the team in rushing by 70 yards. It’ll be another scratch-and-claw approach by the RB committee against a Bills defense that allows 4.4 per carry. It’s the weaker aspect of the Bills’ defense, yet the young phenoms available in the middle — 21-year-old ILB Tremaine Edmunds and 22-year-old NT Ed Oliver — mean that rapid improvement is possible at any time. Steelers rookie TE Zach Gentry’s blocking has improved, and the Steelers are going to need it.
ON DEFENSE:
In Allen, the Steelers face their fourth top-5 rushing QB this season. Allen (439 rushing yards) is third behind Lamar Jackson (1,103) and Kyler Murray (448). The Steelers handled both of those rushing QBs better than most teams. Jackson rushed for 70 yards/5.0 per against the Steelers, and averages 86/7.1 against the rest. Murray was held to 2/0.33 by the Steelers, and averages 37/6.3 against the rest. The Steelers have also faced the No. 5, Russell Wilson, and held him below average as well. Mike Tomlin said stopping Allen’s rushing “is going to be a big-time challenge.” With Devin Bush and the rest of the lightning-quick Steelers defense, that hasn’t been a problem yet.
PREDICTION
On the starting quarterbacks last week, I noticed that: 1.) Duck Hodges has a better arm than I had thought. And it wasn’t just that laser out he threw for a touchdown in the dome last week. Hodges was also cutting through the wind on blustery days at the South Side this week. And, yes, 2.) Bills QB Allen is erratic. After watching him against the Ravens last week, I became convinced he’ll struggle with the Steelers. Then again, the Bills’ pass defense is elite, so it will likely come down to special teams. I’ll go with the better kicker … Steelers, 12-10.
BY THE NUMBERS
4: Games won by the Steelers under Tomlin against the Bills in four tries. This will be his first game against Bills coach and former college teammate Sean McDermott.
13: Combined catches by speedy Bills WR John Brown in two games at Pittsburgh (312 yards, one touchdown). The former Cardinal and Raven leads the Bills with 64 catches for 908 yards.
31: Ranking of Bills punter Corey Bojorquez in net average (more than 10 punts). His 37.6 net is well behind Jordan Berry’s 41.0, who’s 19th.
71.3: Completion percentage by Hodges leads NFL rookies (min. 60 attempts).
103.2: Passer rating by Hodges leads NFL rookies (min. 60 attempts).
222: Number of teams that started a season 0-3 since the merger. The Steelers are the seventh of those to win at least eight of their next 10 games.
DOWNLOADS
n Steelers fans might root for the Houston Texans (8-5) to defeat the Tennessee Titans (8-5) today. If the Steelers (8-5) and Titans both lose, the Steelers would still own the better conference record by half a game and would remain the No. 2 wild card. If the Steelers and Texans lose, the Texans would have the better conference record by a half game. If the Steelers win, they would move into the top wild-card spot ahead of the Bills.
n Bills PK Stephen Hauschka’s 12th season has been his worst, percentage-wise, since his second season. Hauschka is 18-for-24 on field goals (also missed two extra points), and only 1-of-6 from beyond 47 yards. He’s never attempted a kick at Heinz Field. Steelers kicker Chris Boswell is having his best season at 93 percent on field goals. He’s missed only from 44 and 54 yards and has made all extra points.
n Three weeks ago, Bills RB Frank Gore passed Barry Sanders to become the NFL’s third all-time leading rusher behind Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton. Gore, 36, is the NFL’s oldest active RB and is part of a committee approach behind rookie Devin Singletary. Gore has never fared well against the Steelers. In five games (1-4) with San Francisco and Indianapolis, Gore averaged only 3.0 per carry. His best game against the Steelers was in 2011 when he carried 18 times for 65 yards. This year, Gore’s rushed for 558 yards at 3.7 per carry.
n Depending on the preferred metric, the Bills are either the NFL’s No. 2 defense (16.3 points allowed per game) or the No. 3 (297 yards allowed per game). Their strength is a third-ranked pass defense (192 yards allowed per game). The Steelers are sixth, fifth and fifth in those respective categories. However, if the league only counted the Steelers games after the arrival of Minkah Fitzpatrick, they would rank ahead of the Bills in just about all three categories: 16.5 points per game, 287 yards allowed per game, 190 pass yards allowed per game. Fitzpatrick has played since Week 3.
n Steelers offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner on what stands out about the Bills’ defense: “Everything. Schematics are good, sound. Coaching’s sound. These guys don’t beat themselves. They tackle well. It seems to me, just watching the tape, they play angry. We’ve got a heck of a challenge. We’re going to have to match that intensity in physicality, and then also, they just do a very nice job with utilizing their playmakers and putting them in position to make plays, too.”
PARTING SHOT
“It’s the time of the season for us to put ourselves in a good position for a playoff run. Every game’s become a playoff game now.” — Steelers RG David DeCastro.