An updated spring forecast
Another week of temperatures in the 50s and mostly rain rather than snow. Could this be the new normal for upcoming winters across Southwestern Pennsylvania?
Last week, it looked like March might be a little cooler than normal, but the cold air locked up in the Arctic now appears to want to stay locked up and not make any visits to our area and time is running out for these cold visits as we get closer to more spring weather. The longer range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center are looking at above normal temperatures for March, April and May. Rainfall, which has been running on the wet-side for the past couple of years, looks to continue at least through the spring months on the wet side. All of this does not mean we will not have a few cold days and even some snow, but any real polar outbreaks appear to be minimized.
Speaking of snow, the lake-effect snow producing machine got a big boost from the milder temperatures last week and buried parts of New York under almost 4 feet of the white stuff. Since the mild weather has kept the Great Lakes from freezing over this winter, any cold winds blowing over the warmer open water of the lakes is likely to produce some high, but local snowfall amounts. Usually by this time in the winter season, the lakes are frozen over and this inhibits lake effect produced snow. You may have seen the pictures of the ice encrusted homes along the lake shore and again this is a product of the warmer open waters and the elevated lake levels due to the increased rainfalls of the past few years.
The weather is always such an interesting and capricious creature, constantly changing and throwing off behavior different than what we expect. After several years of very warm conditions in Alaska and the Arctic, this year is shaping up to be so different. Fairbanks, Alaska, has consistently produced temperatures of 30 to 40 below zero for week after week, but unlike other years the cold has stayed in place.
The warmth of the past years was causing concern due to the thawing of the permafrost and now we have some of the sea ice returning, although it is not expected to continue over a longer period of time. The increased amounts of sunlight in March will begin to have an effect on March temperatures across most of North America. In our area, March temperatures gain 12 degrees on average for the high going from 46 on the first to 58 by months end. Mornings see 25 degrees at the beginning of the month and 35 by its end.
One last item to mention and put winter in perspective is just how cold it can get in Fairbanks, Alaska, in the wintertime. On Dec.16 1961, the morning low dropped to 42 below zero and continued dropping in the Arctic cold reaching 51 below zero on the Dec. 22 and further dropping to 62 below zero on the Dec. 28 and finally warming to 24 below zero on months end.
Daytime highs during this period were frequently below the 50 degree below zero mark. Fairbanks coldest ever was 66 below zero on January 14, 1934. Prospect Creek, Alaska, holds the all-time lowest temperature in the U.S. with a bone chilling 79.8 below zero on Jan. 27, 1989. Something to ponder as we wait for the next surge of mild spring air.