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Our weather and whatĢƵ ahead

By Jack Hughes 3 min read
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The heat and dry weather continue in the west. Las Vegas has not had measurable rain in 183 days. The previous record was 150 days in 1959.

Phoenix just experienced 144 days with temperatures of 100 or better breaking the old record of 143 days in 1989. Much of the west continues to be plagued by drought and new fires have erupted across Colorado.

Perhaps one of the largest thunderstorms ever, traveling 770 miles from South Dakota to Ohio did over $7.5 billion dollars in damage as it tore through the Mid-West with sustained winds of over 100 mph along its entire path. The storm lasted over 14 hours and was very unusual for its duration and destruction.

These large thunderstorms are called DerechoĢƵ and are rare and usually hit the Mid-West. A number of years ago Western Pennsylvania experienced one of these bruising, fast moving thunderstorms that dropped over 3 inches of rain in a short period of time. The damage from this current storm was more than any of the hurricanes that visited the U.S. this year with the exception of Hurricane Laura that caused over $14 billion in damages as it hit the Gulf Coast.

Almost 50% of the United States is experiencing drought conditions including areas of Western Pennsylvania.

What lies ahead as the glory of autumnĢƵ colors move from the higher to lower elevations and the cooler weather makes its appearance? Temperatures in Fairbanks, Alaska, have already dropped into the teens and winter storms are making their way into the northern states. The La Nina weather pattern that has developed now looks like it will persist and this should affect much of the country including Southwestern Pennsylvania.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, through its Climate Prediction Center, has just issued a winter outlook and it looks like the south will continue to be warm and dry while northern states will be cooler and wetter than normal. The west is expected to remain warm and dry with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, where a series of storms may bring some relief from the drought and fires to Washington, Oregon, Montana and Idaho, but not to California and the rest of the west. The dry conditions and record low water flows will likely expand drought conditions into Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas as well as Northern Florida.

Western Pennsylvania is also experiencing drought conditions and this should persist or worsen a bit over the winter. The forecast for our area is for temperatures to have a 35% chance to be above average and precipitation to be normal or a bit below.

Most of the Wooly Bear Caterpillars are a bit confused this year with equal amounts of brown and black and this would also suggest a somewhat mild winter. Acorns are plentiful but hickory nuts are hard to find. Animals have developed their winter coats but then again they always do a better job of preparing for winter than us human folks. Even the Almanac has a hard time getting winter right and perhaps the best advice is to follow the animals and just be prepared for whatever Mother Nature and Father Frost send our way.

The Climate Prediction Center will issue their next winter update on Nov. 19.

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