Columbus and his early weather warnings
As we approach the beginning of Hurricane season, it might be prudent to apply what we have learned from one of our earliest weather forecasters.
Long before radar, satellites and El Nino and even before the invention of the weather barometer in 1643, an explorer named Christopher Columbus had made several journeys across the Atlantic to a new land.
Columbus notices cirrus clouds drifting overhead from the southeast and he can feel the exceptionally long ocean swell rolling in from the same direction. His little ship dipped and bobbed on the anchor. He also noted a large number of dolphins leaping from the water at the mouth of the Ozama River just outside the harbor at Santo Domingo, the new capital of Espanola.
It was a beautiful sight on a beautiful day but not a beautiful weather forecast.
The Admiral of the Ocean Sea had learned a great deal about tropical weather during his four journeys to the new world. On his first journey in 1492 he had observed similar clouds and the deep swell from the southeast without understanding their meaning. On his second trip three years later he encountered the same signs and the correlation became evident when his fleet was struck by a terrible storm and he lost two of his three ships.
It is now July 1502 and he is seeing the same signs. In addition his rheumatic 51-year-old joints are sore and these creaky things have never lied to him. With his forecast he tries to warn the new governor of the Spanish colony to hold in harbor the 30 ships ready to sail to the homeland. He also seeks permission for his four ships to join them for safekeeping.
Permission denied.
The new governor and Columbus were rivals for the Crown’s affection and Columbus had lost favor since his triumph a decade earlier. The 30 ships set sail for Spain, and Columbus heads west in search of safety.
This was a grave mistake for the ships bound for Spain.
Out of the 30, only a few survived and over 500 sailors were lost. Only one ship made it to Spain and a few were able to make it back to Santa Domingo. Meanwhile Columbus and his ships were safe after sheltering on the south coast of the island.
Just like the governor of the new colony we have an administration today that chooses to ignore the signs of our changing climate. Several weeks ago they attempted to dismantle the National Center for Atmosphere Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado that has existed since 1960 and has played a major role in developing weather and climate models that we use today in forecasting El Nino and La Nina events as well as hurricanes, droughts, wildfire modeling and our weather forecasts.
NCAR also co-ordinates research on weather and climate with NOAA, our weather services and 129 universities engaged in trying to make us safer through better weather forecasts.
Just a few days ago a federal judge blocked this action.
Earlier this year many weather offices were left understaffed by this same administration’s similar actions, then had to rehire many of the employees they had let go.
Imagine being an employee. Imagine the morale. There are many good government employees doing their job to protect us. Simply put they deserve better.
With the start of the hurricane season and the recent tornadoes in our own backyard we are better served when we listen to the weather people and not the politicians. Stay safe!